Baguette's Sauber chances

Acoording to himself, he has a 96% chance to get a place at Sauber next year.
The only questions is if this place is as race driver or as test driver.
Peter Sauber said that he wants to have a unexperienced and a experienced driver in his team for 2010. When he confirmed Kamui Kobayashi for 2010, the chances for Baguette became much fewer. But until the day when Sauber confirmes the second driver there are still chances for Baguette to become it.
In my opinion, there are two real candidates for the second car: Nick Heidfeld and Bertrand Baguette. So it depends on the Mercedes decision, if they choose Michael Schumacher, Nick Heidfeld is free and will get the place at Sauber. If Schumy won't drive at Mercedes GP, i think that Heidfels will drive there, and so the Sauber car will be free for Baguette. In the matter of the test driver at Sauber I think that they'll choose Baguette if Heidfeld comes to Sauber and if Baguette becomes the race driver, i think that Sauber will choose Vitaly Petrov as test driver.